SpaceX has a near-monopoly on rocket launches in the US. Both startups and legacy aerospace companies are trying to get a piece of the launch business. But it’s not happening that quickly. SpaceX has undeniably risen to become the dominant force in the space industry. In just over twenty years, Elon Musk’s company has eclipsed traditional aerospace giants like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman, securing a near-monopoly on rocket launches in the United States. A recent analysis by Space News magazine projects that SpaceX will account for 87 percent of the nation’s orbital launches by the end of 2024. Since the mid-2010s, the company has consistently outbid competitors for NASA contracts and secured a significant role as a defense contractor for the Pentagon. It has also become the go-to launch provider for commercial clients, successfully deploying a vast number of satellites and conducting five private crewed spaceflights—with many more missions planned for the future.
“As new rockets rise, even giants like SpaceX must look to the skies with caution—dominance in space is never guaranteed.”
Other space companies have been trying to compete with the company for years, but developing a reliable rocket requires long, continuous work and large budgets. Now, at least some of them are catching up. Several companies have developed rockets at least comparable to SpaceX’s main launch vehicles. Among them is Rocket Lab, which aims to rival SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 with its Neutron rocket and could conduct its first launch in late 2025. Blue Origin, owned by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, which recently completed its first major mission, also faces competition.
Some of SpaceX’s rivals are now beginning to ignite their engines and enter the competitive space launch arena. While these emerging players bring promise, they may also encounter challenges—especially given Elon Musk’s close ties to the Trump administration and influential allies in key federal agencies that regulate the space industry. Still, their entry could be a game-changer. If successful, these new companies could expand access to space and reduce the risk of bottlenecks in case of setbacks with any single provider. “More players in the market is good for competition,” says Chris Combs, an aerospace engineer at the University of Texas at San Antonio. Although he acknowledges that matching SpaceX’s pricing will be difficult in the near term, Combs believes competition could drive innovation and motivate SpaceX to diversify its offerings.
SpaceX’s dominance didn’t happen overnight. In its early years during the 2000s, the company faced multiple failed launches and appeared close to collapse. But Elon Musk’s deep pockets and key contracts from NASA and the Department of Defense allowed it to survive and grow. As NASA rolled out its commercial space program in the 2010s, designed to spur private-sector innovation, SpaceX emerged as one of its biggest beneficiaries—cementing its place at the forefront of the modern space industry.
